Australia Winter Crop Forecast Falls to 62.9 Million Tonnes as Regional Divide Widens

Sydney — Australia’s winter crop production is expected to fall 7.9% to 62.9 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, with a record harvest in South Australia helping cushion sharp declines in Queensland and New South Wales (NSW).

The forecast by agribusiness bank Rabobank puts national output 2.6% above the five-year average, although it would be lower than last season’s second-largest harvest on record.

South Australia is projected to produce 12.44 million tonnes, a 43.7% increase, while Victoria’s output is expected to rise 11.2% to 11.21 million tonnes.

The gains contrast with Queensland, where production could plunge 47.6% to 2.03 million tonnes.

Rabobank’s 2026/27 Australian Winter Crop Forecast, released on October 13, attributes the divergent results to uneven rainfall and growing conditions across the country.

“Production is more concentrated in southern and western regions of the country this year,” Vitor Pistoia, RaboResearch senior Grains and Oilseeds Analyst and Lead Author of the report said

Below-average rainfall across Queensland and parts of the northern east coast has weakened crop prospects, while favourable moisture levels and strong yields have boosted production in South Australia and Victoria.

Western Australia is also expected to harvest less than last season, although its projected output remains above the state’s five-year average.

The contrasting regional results are shaping prospects for individual commodities, with wheat, barley and pulses forecast to decline while canola production is expected to reach a national record.

Wheat output is projected at 31 million tonnes, down 13.3% from last season and 9.7% below the five-year average.

Barley production is forecast at 16.5 million tonnes, 1.2% lower year-on-year but still 16.8% above its five-year average.

Canola is expected to increase 5.3% to 8.1 million tonnes, while pulse production is projected to fall 12.9%  to 5.5 million tonnes.

Despite the expected decline in wheat production, international supply disruptions could support Australian prices as buyers seek reliable export sources.

Rabobank said restrictions affecting Black Sea ports and shipping routes had reduced wheat trade and increased maritime transport costs, even though combined Russian and Ukrainian production remained above the five-year average.

“The global wheat market is moving into 2027 with adequate supply, but reliable export availability is becoming a price driver,” Pistoia said.

Australia’s shorter shipping routes to Asian markets are expected to give its exporters a freight advantage over competing suppliers, potentially supporting local port prices relative to overseas benchmarks.

The report also warned that possible El Niño impacts in 2027 could widen price differences between eastern and western Australia.

Lower production in eastern regions could increase demand for grain transported from Western Australia and South Australia to supply livestock producers.

Similar movements occurred between 2018 and 2020, when grain from western and southern Australia helped meet demand in eastern markets.

Barley faces a different outlook. Although production is expected to remain historically high, plentiful supplies could weigh on prices during harvest before stronger export demand supports a recovery in the first quarter of 2027.

Higher United States corn prices, lower European cereal production and shipping disruptions are improving barley’s competitiveness as an international feed grain.

A potential reduction in Australian sorghum production could also tighten east coast feed supplies and strengthen local barley prices.

Canola is the only major winter crop forecast to increase this season, with production expected to reach 8.1 million tonnes, 15.5% above the five-year average.

Western Australia is projected to supply 59% of the national crop after the area planted to canola in the state increased by 41%.

Global demand is also expected to underpin the market, with oilseed consumption projected to grow faster than production.

Stronger biofuel demand could further reduce stocks and support prices.

Pulse growers face a less favourable supply picture. Australian production is expected to fall to 5.5 million tonnes, but output would remain 25.3%  above the five-year average, the report said.

Rabobank said abundant global supplies were limiting price increases across the pulse market, although tighter chickpea production, including a smaller Australian crop, was supporting a premium for chickpeas over other pulses.

Queensland’s projected 47.6% production decline is the steepest among the major winter-cropping states.

Rabobank attributed the fall mainly to well-below-average rainfall across much of the state’s wheat-growing region.

New South Wales is forecast to produce 13.52 million tonnes, down 26.3% from last season.

Conditions have varied across the state, with favourable growing-season rainfall supporting prospects in the eastern Riverina and Murray regions despite weaker results elsewhere.

Western Australia’s crop is expected to reach 23.73 million tonnes, 13.3% below last season but 3.6 percent above its five-year average.

The state could record its fourth- or fifth-largest winter harvest on record.

Pistoia said Western Australia would retain its position as the country’s leading canola-producing state.

South Australia, meanwhile, is on course for its largest winter crop on record. Its projected 12.44 million tonnes are supported by the largest planted area in the state’s history, favourable rainfall, above-average subsoil moisture and limited frost damage.

Pistoia described the season as a “season for the record books” for South Australia, where strong yields have lifted overall production prospects.

Victoria is also expected to record a strong harvest, with production forecast at 11.21 million tonnes.

Rabobank said high yields had put the state on course for one of its largest winter crops in recent years.

The relatively firm outlook for grain prices comes as Australian farmers continue to contend with high input and transport costs.

Rabobank said geopolitical disruptions to global export availability had strengthened grain prices, but expensive fertiliser, diesel, agricultural chemicals and freight continued to compress grower margins.

The national forecast therefore masks sharply different conditions for producers. Growers in South Australia and Victoria are benefiting from favourable seasons and strong yields, while those in Queensland and parts of New South Wales face substantial production losses.

The final balance between harvest volumes, export demand, shipping availability and input costs will help determine how much of the expected price support translates into returns for Australian grain producers.