Victoria Faces National 'Social Housing Deficit' as Funding Dries Up

Melbourne - Victoria is falling further behind the rest of Australia in its provision of social housing, with new industry data suggesting the state’s share of affordable stock will virtually stagnate over the next four years.

Analysis released by the Community Housing Industry Association Victoria (CHIA Vic) indicates that by 2030, Victoria’s social housing share is projected to grow by a negligible 0.02 percentage points.

Despite the impact of the state’s Big Housing Build (BHB), the analysis warns that the gap between Victoria and other states and territories is expected to widen significantly.

While the BHB has increased the total number of homes, current state and federal commitments are estimated to deliver approximately 9,300 social dwellings by 2030.

The figure remains significantly lower than the efforts of other states; Queensland is projected to add over 17,000 homes, while New South Wales will add nearly 15,000 during the same period.

CHIA Vic Chief Executive Officer, Sarah Toohey, stated that while the Big Housing Build was a vital intervention, the exhaustion of its funding has left the state without a necessary long-term pipeline.

"Victoria lags behind every other state on the proportion of social housing and without a funding pipeline from the government, we're set to fall even further behind," Toohey said.

"On current funding commitments, we estimate that Victoria's social housing share will barely budge by 2030," she said.

The current social housing waitlist in Victoria exceeds 56,000 families and continues to grow.

Statistics for June 2025 show Victoria at the bottom of the national table with a 3.21 percent share of social housing, compared to 4.74 percent in New South Wales and 6.01 percent in South Australia.

By 2030, Victoria is expected to reach only 3.23 percent, while Tasmania is projected to soar to 7.41 percent.

In its pre-budget submission, CHIA Vic urged the Victorian government to adopt a "Queensland-style" funding model.

Queensland has committed A$5.6 billion over four years plus an ongoing A$500 million annual baseline starting in 2029.

"Queensland has set the gold standard. In this budget, the Victorian Labor government needs to go further than the LNP Queensland government, and commit to a baseline of $620 million each year for the next 10 years to account for our larger population," Toohey said.

The association argues that an ambitious, ongoing funding pipeline would provide the community housing sector with the certainty needed to lower construction costs and leverage federal programs like the Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF).

The analysis also suggests that the required investment could be sourced by reallocating funds, noting that billions remain earmarked for other infrastructure projects, such as the removal of level crossings.

Without a shift in strategy, advocates warn that waiting times will continue to stretch, exacerbating the risk of homelessness across the state.

"Without bold and sustained investment, Victoria's waitlist will keep growing, waiting times will stretch longer, and more people risk being pushed into homelessness," Toohey said.