Brazil’s Beef Export Surge Threatens Australian Producers

Sydney — Brazil’s rapid expansion of beef exports is intensifying competition for Australian producers, with new Chinese import restrictions and potential access to Japan and South Korea threatening to reshape global meat trade, Rabobank has said.

The South American country has overtaken the United States as the world’s largest beef producer, producing about 11.7 million tonnes annually and exporting approximately 3.5 million tonnes, Rabobank Senior alAnimal Proteins Analyst, Angus Gidley-Baird said.

He warned that Australian exporters needed to monitor Brazil’s growing influence as shifting trade flows forced producers to compete more aggressively across key international markets.

“Over the past few years, we’ve seen Brazil increase its presence in a number of Australia’s export markets,” Gidley-Baird said.

“Combined with changing trade dynamics involving China, the United States and Europe, it is becoming increasingly important for Australian producers and exporters to understand what is happening in the Brazilian beef sector," he said.

Speaking on Rabobank’s RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness podcast, Playing with the Big Boys: The Brazilian Beef Industry, Gidley-Baird and Rabobank Brazil Animal Protein Analyst, Wagner Yanaguizawa, outlined the factors driving Brazil’s growing dominance.

Brazil’s competitiveness is underpinned by its massive cattle herd, improving productivity and increasing focus on overseas markets.

Yanaguizawa said the country’s cattle herd reached a record 196 million head in 2023 and remained close to that level, supported by years of herd rebuilding, greater use of genetics and improvements in production efficiency.

“Alongside a large herd, we’re seeing ongoing gains in productivity through heavier carcase weights, improved feed conversion and greater adoption of feedlot systems,” he said.

The growth is also changing Brazil’s traditional balance between domestic consumption and exports.

Although Brazil historically consumed about 70% of its beef production locally, reports say that proportion fell to 61% in 2025 as exports reached record levels.

Yanaguizawa expects overseas demand to continue growing faster than domestic consumption over the medium term, potentially increasing the volume of Brazilian beef available to international buyers.

“My view is external market demand should keep growing faster than local consumption,” he said, “over the medium to long term, the domestic market share is likely to keep getting smaller.”

Australia, by comparison, exports about 65 to 70% of its beef production, making international markets central to its industry.

“While Australia exports around 65 to 70 per cent of its beef production, Brazil has historically relied far more heavily on domestic consumption.

"However, the rapid growth in exports means Brazil is becoming an increasingly influential participant in global markets,” Gidley-Baird said.

Brazilian processors are also benefiting from higher returns on export beef than on products sold domestically, strengthening the incentive to prioritise international customers.

Yanaguizawa said average domestic beef carcase values in Brazil stood at about 30,000 reais (US$5,994.00) per tonne in 2025, compared with approximately 37,000 reais (US$7,392.60) per tonne for export products.

“Export margins are higher than domestic market margins, so from a strategic perspective processors are likely to keep increasing supply to export markets, even if that comes at the expense of domestic consumption," he said.

The price differential could reinforce Brazil’s export drive, adding pressure on competing suppliers as Brazilian processors seek to maximise returns from overseas sales.

China remains the biggest destination for Brazilian beef, accounting for about 46% of the country’s exports.

New Chinese import quota restrictions have however significantly reduced Brazilian shipments, particularly during the second half of 2025, leaving exporters looking for alternative destinations.

Brazil exported about 1.65 million tonnes of beef to China last year.

Shipments to the market are expected to fall to between 1.2 million and 1.25 million tonnes this year because of the restrictions.

International markets analysts say the redirection of these volumes could intensify competition in markets also served by Australian exporters.

Yanaguizawa agreed, saying the United States was likely to absorb some of the displaced Brazilian beef, supported by a temporary duty-free quota.

Other potential destinations include the Middle East, Indonesia, Vietnam, Chile and the United Kingdom.

He however indicated that these markets would not be sufficient to fully compensate for the reduction in Chinese demand, leaving Brazil with a strong incentive to expand its reach elsewhere.

The possible opening of Japan and South Korea to Brazilian beef exports presents another potential challenge for Australia, he said.

Both countries are important markets for Australian producers, and access for Brazilian suppliers could introduce a new competitor in destinations where Australia has an established presence.

Yanaguizawa said inspections of Brazilian processing plants by Japanese and South Korean authorities had been completed, with final reports still pending before market access decisions could be concluded.

Industry expectations were that access could be granted later this year.

“These two markets are very important for Australia, and soon Australia may have a new competitor,” he said.

Any approval would broaden Brazil’s export opportunities and potentially increase the number of markets in which Australian and Brazilian beef compete directly.

Despite expectations of lower Brazilian beef production in the second half of the year, Rabobank said the country’s long-term outlook remained geared towards export growth.

Its large cattle herd, productivity gains and expanding access to international markets are expected to sustain its influence on global beef trade.

For Australian exporters, the immediate concern is how much Brazilian beef will be redirected from China into alternative markets and how the additional supply could affect prices over the coming months.

Gidley-Baird said the volume Brazil could redirect and the resulting impact on price competition were key questions for Australian exporters.

Rabobank said Brazil’s expanding role in global beef production and trade would remain one of the factors shaping international beef markets in the years ahead.