Australia Develops Modelling Tool to Test Critical Minerals Investment Choices

Sydney — Australia’s ambitions to expand domestic critical minerals processing face a complex mix of energy costs, emissions targets and geopolitical risks, prompting researchers to develop a modelling platform that tests how different investment and supply-chain decisions could affect the industry’s competitiveness.

The Green Minerals Platform, developed by an interdisciplinary team at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Sydney, is designed to help mining companies, investors and policymakers compare the economic and environmental consequences of alternative ways to extract, process and transport critical minerals.

The initiative comes as Australia seeks to capture more value from its mineral resources rather than rely primarily on extracting raw materials for processing elsewhere.

The viability of that shift will depend on whether domestic projects can compete on costs while meeting growing demands for lower-emissions production and more secure supply chains.

The platform allows users to change assumptions about processing locations, ore quality, technologies, energy sources and transport routes, then assess how those choices affect production costs, carbon emissions and competitiveness.

Its modelling also incorporates variables such as carbon pricing, trade policies, government incentives and geopolitical conditions, enabling users to examine how changes in markets or policy could alter the attractiveness of competing supply-chain configurations.

Scientia Associate Professor, Rahman Daiyan, who leads the UNSW research team, said decisions about critical minerals required expertise across multiple disciplines because the technical and economic challenges vary between resources and projects.

“Critical minerals supply chains involve complex decisions about technologies, energy systems, processing locations and market conditions,” Prof. Daiyan said.

“By bringing together expertise from different disciplines, we can develop tools that help industry and governments better understand these challenges.”

The research covers several mineral and metal value chains, including copper, lithium, green iron, rare earth oxides and domestic gallium recovery.

The team combines work in mineral processing, energy systems, economic modelling and supply-chain assessment within a shared framework.

That approach recognises that technologies suited to one mining operation may not work for another.

Geological conditions, ore grades, the depth of deposits, access to electricity and local infrastructure can all influence which extraction and processing methods are technically feasible and financially viable.

Integrating renewable electricity into copper or lithium production, for example, could reduce emissions, but the overall benefit would depend on the project's energy requirements, technology choices and associated costs, Prof.  Daiyan said.

The platform is intended to help users evaluate those trade-offs rather than assume a single solution will suit every operation.

Prof. Daiyan also said the aim was to translate university research into practical tools for decision-making.

“What we are developing is a platform that brings together expertise from across our research teams and translates that knowledge into practical tools.

“We want to help industry and governments compare different options, understand the trade-offs and make decisions based on sound technical and economic analysis," he said.

The work has potential implications for Australia's Future Made in Australia agenda, which seeks to strengthen domestic industrial capabilities and support investment in strategic sectors.

However, the platform's modelling will not by itself determine whether individual projects are commercially viable; outcomes will depend on the quality of the underlying assumptions and changing market conditions.

For investors, comparing different scenarios could help identify exposure to energy prices, policy changes and supply-chain disruptions before committing capital to projects with long development timelines.

Governments could use similar assessments to examine how incentives or emissions policies affect the relative competitiveness of domestic processing options.

The UNSW team says it has held discussions with industry organisations about possible practical applications and intends to develop further partnerships to adapt the modelling to specific projects and business requirements.

The platform is being developed by Prof. Daiyan alongside researchers and students working on different mineral supply chains, with broader academic involvement from Professors Iain MacGill, Ismet Canbulat and Serkan Saydam.

Beyond investment planning, the researchers see public scrutiny as important to decisions about the future of the mining sector.

“Without public questioning and public debate, this industry won't move forward,” Prof. Daiyan said.